xp_logs | Sooraya and Kevin

Sooraya get some help for an assignment.

"I hope you don't mind me dropping by, but someone at the Snow Valley offices said you might be able to help with something for my studies..." Sooraya explained briefly after the man before her had opened the door. She balanced a thick college text on one arm, along with a notebook with about three different colors of pens stuck to it.

Kevin gave her a bemused expression as he stepped back and opened the door wider. "Be my guest. Can I get you a drink?"

"I am sorry. I didn't even ask it a good time or introduce myself." Sooraya fiddled with her scarf for a moment. "I am Sooraya Qadir and I am about to tear my hair out about a particularly obnoxious paper."

"Yes, Miss Qadir. I'm assuming the assignment is political in nature?" Kevin had obviously been relaxing, wearing his suit pants and his dress shirt tie-less and open at the throat. He filled one glass with a small measure from the bottle at his elbow and another with a rather larger amount, passed the smaller one over and motioned to a chair. "Sit, please."

"It is." Sooraya confirmed with a nod as she took her seat and put the glass down next to her, along with her book and other materials. "One of my majors is Middle Eastern Studies and the paper I am currently working is something of a political analysis of the background of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979."

"Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. A case in full of not taking a Democratic president's promises at full value." He said, taking a sip. "Shoot."

"Honestly, I am more curious... how did you mean that?" Sooraya looked a little intrigued and pulled over her note book. "Something to do with President Carter I am assuming?"

"Kennedy. That's who gave ol' Pahlavi the progressive bug. Only problem was that you ignore the Imams at your peril and assuming the Marines are coming as your fallback plan isn't all that bright."

"Imams and the will of the people obviously. History seems to have shown that time and time again." Sooraya mused thoughtfully. "Especially if you touch something close to their hearts especially, like religion. The Shah's active policies of both Westernisation and modernization did just that..."

"First of, you can leave out the will of the people. There was plenty of dissatisfaction, but it was always unfocused. Most when pressed with 'if not the Shah, who?' either didn't have an answer or talked vaguely of democracy." Kevin swirled the bourbon in his glass reflectively. "The realty was that the Shah angered two groups; the clerics and the landlords, and they used the general dissatisfaction to power an Islamic takeover. That was not what the majority of Iranians wanted, but by the time the smoke settled, it was those organized factions that held the whip hand."

"Yet there were massive demonstrations and strikes at the beginning of the 'Revolution'." Sooraya objected. "That must speak for a least a decent part of the population. Though I can imagine the reign of the Ayatollahs is also not quite what they wanted. But it was Khomeini who did manage to light a big part of the fire."

"You'd think so, but that wasn't the case. Some of the largest demonstrations came from the Iranian Marxist factions and pro-democracy factions." Kevin pointed out. "If the Shah had temporized with the moderate clerics, the Ayatollahs wouldn't have had the influence to seize control. By isolating them, the Shah essentially forced them into the hard liners camp, and the one thing that mostly united Iranians was some level of Islamic belief."

"Plus that Khomeini was at least somewhat more careful about shrouding his more extreme idea's. I mean, he was not really open to many moderate groups about his idea's concerning 'the guardianship of the jurists'. So some of the more moderate groups were also not fully aware of his agenda." Sooraya remarked after she consulted some of her notes. "At least, that is the picture I got from the materials that I studied."

`The hierarchy knew what they were dealing with, even if the lay clergy didn't. What they didn't know was how quickly and ruthlessly he'd move to consolidate his power. Another fairly classic mistake." Kevin shook his head. "But there's a big part that a lot of people don't consider. Look at Iran and its placement. You see it even every ancient map. What does it represent?"

"Most routes over land from West to East pass through ancient Persia. The ancient Silk Road went through it, for example. It something of a gateway." Sooraya frowned a little, considering. "I am guessing that gives it quite a bit of a strategic values as well. Culturally, Persia had a very old civilization, but I don't think that is what you are aiming at."

"You're close. Iran is a crossroads; geographically, geopolitically, ethnically, and before the Shah was toppled, philosophically. The Shah was open to the Western cultural reforms but not the political ones, which is why the CIA and MI6 had agents on the ground recruiting. The Soviets and ChiComs had agents in the Marxist movements. All three had one eye on the oil. Even India was looking at the advantages that a collapsing Iranian state could provide for them. Now, of all these outside factors, which faction had the least external influence shifted on them?"

"That would have been the religious ones. The CIA and MI6 would have focused on those with Western sympathies, while the others would have focused on organisations sympathetic to their cause." Sooraya replied after only a moment of consideration.

"More than that, Iran is largely Shia Muslims, surrounded by Sunni populations. So you have a group that is largely regional, feels threatened religiously by both other sects and the central government, operating in a sea of general chaos without any other ties. So when the flashpoint hit, they were the only ones who moved immediately. Everyone else, the Shah included, was waiting for direction and support. By the time they had an answers, the revolution was already firmly in the hands of the Ayatollahs." Sydney said, gesturing with his hands. "That's the important thing to remember about revolutions. Rarely, if ever, does a revolution happen because of a single ideological group orchestrating it. Almost always, its when the general satisfaction has grown too large and finally breaks out, who's in the right position to direct it ends up as the leaders."

"Almost more a matter of opportunity to take the helm then a matter of skill. Though that is not fully true. You do need to manuver yourself in a place where you are in the right position." She shook her head. "Sometimes I wonder what Iran would have looked like if a different group would have taken the power. Like the more secular moderates. Some of them did support the revolution, but... I don't think they expected the Ayatollahs to be quite like this."

"Opportunity and luck have a lot more impact on world politics than you might think. Partially because people are often deeply irrational." He refilled his glass, ignoring that hers sat untouched. "But second guessing gets really complicated. For example, let's say that our people had pushed through the full constitutional monarchy. How long would the Shah have been content to be a titular figure in name but not power? How would a popularly elected government been able to balance the rural and urban divide that empowered the clerics? What if Mohammad Kazem Shariatmadari had come out for the reformers right off the bat? His influence would have quickly overshadowed Khomeini's."

"I have read about Mohammad Kazem Shariatmadari. He was indeed far more moderate and believed a democratic government could work, with the return to a constitutional monarchy... I'd like to think the Shah would have favored that above what truly happened, but I am not sure. He might have been forced to abdicate and his son to take the throne. He was also younger and far more malleable.... the West would have preferred this option above what there is now though..." Sooraya considered out loud.

"If he'd lasted. Who knows whether a less militant and reformed Iran holds its own in the Iraq-Iran conflict. That is the nature of politics, Sooraya. There is no either-or. Too many factors, too many influences... you can't know for sure how something will play out. So, you make your best guess and hope hindsight doesn't damn you for it."

"One impossible puzzle to solve. Yet it's interesting to explore at least some this in my paper. I mean, would a government supported by Shariatmadari accept assistance from the West or other countries. Those might have changed the face of conflict as well." Sooraya bit her lip, making a few quick notes about the avenue to explore.

"Depends on whether or not it suited us. You want to posit something, try this. Shariatmadari helps legitimize a democratic government with or without a sovereign head of state. The clerics end up divided between rural and urban loyalties, leaving an ongoing asymmetrical insurgency in the outlying areas. To reinforce it, Carter authorizes, say, four divisions and a wing of fighters as a peacekeeping mission to help stabilize the newly democratic region. Six months later, the Soviets roll into Afghanistan. But this time, the narrative is that the government is being overrun by Iranian groups and Western influence. Maybe Reagan gets elected or Carter stays in at 1980, but regardless, both sides are staring down the barrel of a new proxy war while the US military is still reeling from Vietnam and all branches are below their Soviet counterparts."

"That didn't keep them from interfering in Afghanistan either way. I often have heard it spoken of that 'certain agencies' provided support and training to the Mudjahideen." Sooraya paused from a moment. "From which later various groups like the Taliban developed."

"Interference and proxy wars are two different things. For example, the Agency giving the Mujahideen anti-tank rockets was not going to involve MiGs and F-14s making chicken runs at each other on the border." Kevin continued to drink, without any signs it was influencing him. "But, the mention of the Taliban is apt, as it wasn't dissimilar to the situation years before in Iran. In that case, it was actually a smaller Mujahideen group under Muhammad Omar which used the constant conflict of larger groups and their backing from Pakistan to maneuver and gain momentum. By the time they became a threat, the other larger groups were too exhausted or lacked cohesion to stop them, regardless of popular support."

Sooraya had to consider that for a moment. "I see where you are going. They were the last ones still in the race and that is why they came out on top. Sounds like it was cleverly played..."

"I doubt it was their plan all along." He sighed. "The thing about these situations is that everything that happens is about adapting to opportunities, and those can change in a heartbeat. If I had to count the number of people we armed and later ended up fighting against, I'd be here for hours."

"I wonder why it's still being done then..." Sooraya mused idly, though she closed her notebook and tucked her pen inside. "I mean, I am just thinking of Iraq atm..."

"We've been doing it since the Egyptians paid off the Hittites and we'll be doing it for as long as the race lasts. Simply because removing a short term threat is easier to justify than the potential of creating a long term enemy. Like I said, sometimes you roll the dice and hope they land your way. Which is why political science has an unfortunate tendency to try and give deeper meaning to events and decisions that were mostly circumstantial and reactive."

"That we have been doing it for over three thousand years doesn't mean it's a smart idea to keep it up. Especially the things being given away probably have a lot more potential for damage and deconstruction then even a hundred years ago." She only had to think of the mess that Afghanistan was nowadays. "No deep digging political science needed for that, only some common sense."

"Now you've gone into philosophy. Allow me to share one of Plato's best lines. Only the dead have seen the end of war." He said, his eyebows arched. "The reason is that every decision is contextual; the locus of a thousand different factors and influences. Sometimes the decision that is made for the now is still the best decision, even if a decade later the circumstances change and you find it works against you."

"We might not be able to see in the future, except for a very few...." Sooraya shook her head. "But we can still look at the past and learn from there... what worked, what did not work and which risks we face when we do make a certain choice. When I read this..." She hefted the thick history text.

"Sooraya, no situation is ever the same as something in the past. The whole point I'm making is that it is a mistake to think that one change or action makes history. There are thousands of smaller factors and elements and irrationality that overlay any point. When an action is taken, it sets off any number of other, smaller and larger reactions. Do the same thing a hundred times and you'll end up with a hundred different results."

"There will always be similarities which can at least be used to guesstimate things. Like the thing with training groups and giving them weapons... Can you give me one example where it has not come back to bite in the tail of the US?" Sooraya tilted her head curiously. "Especially in the Middle East..."

"Off the top of my head, Bosnia, Egypt, Israel... it's a little too early to tell about the Kurds and Libya. The problem is that in realpolitick, allies turn into enemies and allies again at different intervals. For example, arming the Mujahideen eventually led to the Taliban, right? One that is a dangerous foe in terms of asymmetrical warfare, but largely not a threat to national security. Without arming them, Afghanistan very likely falls in the early 80s to the Soviets. Does the Taliban still eventually take power? Do they do so with Soviet equipment and armor? Is Pakistan able to maintain stability between a communist state and India, or does it collapse as India moves in to secure it and suddenly you've got a potential shooting war between them and the Soviets. Which is the better outcome?"

"It's impossible to predict, but still... So far it does seem to be working for the Kurds for example, but what if in a decade there is a wish for a independent Kurdistan... What way will the weapons be turned them and how many innocent people will die then again..." Sooraya softly mused to herself.

"Innocent people always die in war. And war happens because societies naturally try and push their idea of how things should be wider and wider. It won't stop, even if you take away all the weapons, Sooraya. Sometimes you accept long term risks because averting short term disaster has to be your priority. The danger of history is that because of your perspective, it colors how you judge the actions. The only real way is to consider it in the context of the moment with the information that is available."

"I think we are going to have to agree to disagree here on some points..." Sooraya shook her head ruefully. "But I do need..." She gestured at her books. "I am afraid the paper is not going to write itself."

"Sooraya, one of the best things about being young is that you have the luxury of thinking things can change. I envy that. I really do." Kevin picked up the bottle and rummaged around for his cigarettes. "And while you write your paper, I am going to enjoy one of the best things about being old, which is smoking and drinking too much."

Quickly gathering her papers and book, Sooraya smiled. "Thanks for the help. I at least have a interesting new angle to explore. Hope you have good afternoon indeed!"